The Average Gunfight

I have observed a lot of discussions about statistics for the average gunfight. While these discussions might prove interesting, when they start to drive training without some proper analysis we run into some problems. It is important to remember that all of the statistics come from law enforcement encounters.

The average gunfight happens at close range. Police officers have to close to contact distance to effect an arrest, or perform a search. This is a huge difference, the police want to engage and private citizens want to disengage.

Technically speaking the shooting might happen at close range, but generally the altercation starts at a greater distance, especially if you include the radio call and the drive to the scene. A police officer responds differently to a "shots fired" call than a "suspicious person" call.

When they conduct a felony stop, issuing commands from behind cover, with weapons out those situations rarely turn into gun fights, because even armed criminals are at such a disadvantage that they rarely initiate. There is not statistic for 'average distance where a potential gunfight is averted.'

I believe that this statistic is actually driven from the FBI Uniform Crime Reports, which states that most officers are killed in gunfights at 5 feet or less.

The average gunfight has some number of rounds fired. The number has changed over the years as more officers are armed with high capacity weapons, instead of six shot revolvers. Whatever the number, it is not so much the number of shots but the number of hits that matter. If this gun fight is happening at contact distance (fighting or wrestling) accuracy can suffer.

Bullets (especially out of a handgun) take time to work. Generally people who are shot (even fatally shot) don't just flop over stone dead. In the wrestling match they might not realize that they have been shot, and don't realize that it is time to quit. Contrast this to somebody facing a test of motivation like getting shot while still approaching, and continuing to approach when it means getting shot more.

According to this study... The data collection teams are not at the event. They read the reports, statements, and court transcripts. All of these documents are campfire stories that hold the basic truth of the event, but not the fine level of detail necessary to extrapolate any real insights.

Statistics don't apply to the individual, or the specific circumstance. Statistics are valuable, but not when they get misconstrued and compound the problem further.